Goldman Sachs Increases 2023 Recession Odds

Rivian shares fall to all-time low

Goldman Sachs said rising oil prices and other impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, and added the probability of a recession in 2023 is now at 20% to 30%. 

Economists at the bank cut their estimate for 2022 GDP growth to 1.7% from 2% on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. They wrote in a note to clients the prediction implies economic expansion will be down in the first and second quarters, as well as the full year, noting higher oil and food prices will shrink Americans’ disposable income. 

gdp

The note explained the outlook means the chances of recession next year are “broadly in line with the 20%-35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve.

Global GDP Reduction

Yesterday, International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva noted the IMF is likely to downgrade its global GDP forecast ahead of its spring meetings next month. She cited the effects of the fighting in Ukraine as well as massive sanctions against Russia for triggering a contraction in global trade and sending food and energy prices significantly higher. 

The IMF had already lowered its estimate for 2022 global GDP growth in January by 0.5 percentage points to 4.4%. At that time, it pointed to risks connected to COVID-19, inflation, supply disruptions, and expected Fed interest rate hikes. 

Rivian Shares Tank on Earnings Miss

Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) shares are sinking after the electric vehicle (EV) maker missed quarterly financial forecasts, and said it would produce fewer-than-expected trucks and SUVs this year. 

Rivian posted a fourth quarter loss of $2.43 per share, with revenue at $54 million. Both were short of analysts’ estimates. The company added the increase in its net loss to $2.5 billion from $353 million last year was attributable to higher operating costs.  

Rivian indicated it delivered 909 of its vehicles in the quarter after beginning production of all three of its products, the R1T truck, the R1S SUV, and the EDV delivery van, at its Normal, Ill. plant this year.  

Supply Chain Constraints

The company announced it anticipates manufacturing 25,000 vehicles in 2022, half of what it had originally thought because of supply chain constraints. It explained it is working with suppliers and looking for “engineered solutions” to combat any future issues getting materials and parts.

Shares of Rivan are down more than 7%, and trading at their all-time low.