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How to Value a Company
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Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

What Is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS). The price-to-earnings ratio is also sometimes known as the price multiple or the earnings multiple.

P/E ratios are used by investors and analysts to determine the relative value of a company's shares in an apples-to-apples comparison. It can also be used to compare a company against its own historical record or to compare aggregate markets against one another or over time.

P/E may be estimated on a trailing (backward-looking) or forward (projected) basis.

Key Takeaways

• The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio relates a company's share price to its earnings per share.
• A high P/E ratio could mean that a company's stock is overvalued, or else that investors are expecting high growth rates in the future.
• Companies that have no earnings or that are losing money do not have a P/E ratio because there is nothing to put in the denominator.
• Two kinds of P/E ratios—forward and trailing P/E—are used in practice.
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P/E Ratio Formula and Calculation

The formula and calculation used for this process are as follows.

$\text{P/E Ratio} = \frac{\text{Market value per share}}{\text{Earnings per share}}$

To determine the P/E value, one must simply divide the current stock price by the earnings per share (EPS).

The current stock price (P) can be found simply by plugging a stock’s ticker symbol into any finance website, and although this concrete value reflects what investors must currently pay for a stock, the EPS is a slightly more nebulous figure.

EPS comes in two main varieties. TTM is a Wall Street acronym for "trailing 12 months". This number signals the company's performance over the past 12 months. The second type of EPS is found in a company's earnings release, which often provides EPS guidance. This is the company's best-educated guess of what it expects to earn in the future. These different versions of EPS form the basis of trailing and forward P/E, respectively.

Understanding the P/E Ratio

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is one of the most widely used tools by which investors and analysts determine a stock's relative valuation. The P/E ratio helps one determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued. A company's P/E can also be benchmarked against other stocks in the same industry or against the broader market, such as the S&P 500 Index.

Sometimes, analysts are interested in long-term valuation trends and consider the P/E 10 or P/E 30 measures, which average the past 10 or past 30 years of earnings, respectively. These measures are often used when trying to gauge the overall value of a stock index, such as the S&P 500, because these longer-term measures can compensate for changes in the business cycle.

The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has fluctuated from a low of around 5x (in 1917) to over 120x (in 2009 right before the financial crisis). The long-term average P/E for the S&P 500 is around 16x, meaning that the stocks that make up the index collectively command a premium 16 times greater than their weighted average earnings.

When to Review the P/E Ratio

Analysts and investors review a company's P/E ratio when they determine if the share price accurately represents the projected earnings per share.

Forward Price-to-Earnings

These two types of EPS metrics factor into the most common types of P/E ratios: the forward P/E and the trailing P/E. A third and less common variation uses the sum of the last two actual quarters and the estimates of the next two quarters.

The forward (or leading) P/E uses future earnings guidance rather than trailing figures. Sometimes called "estimated price to earnings," this forward-looking indicator is useful for comparing current earnings to future earnings and helps provide a clearer picture of what earnings will look like—without changes and other accounting adjustments.

However, there are inherent problems with the forward P/E metric—namely, companies could underestimate earnings in order to beat the estimated P/E when the next quarter's earnings are announced. Other companies may overstate the estimate and later adjust it going into their next earnings announcement. Furthermore, external analysts may also provide estimates, which may diverge from the company estimates, creating confusion.

Trailing Price-to-Earnings

The trailing P/E relies on past performance by dividing the current share price by the total EPS earnings over the past 12 months. It's the most popular P/E metric because it's the most objective—assuming the company reported earnings accurately. Some investors prefer to look at the trailing P/E because they don't trust another individual’s earnings estimates. But the trailing P/E also has its share of shortcomings—namely, that a company’s past performance doesn’t signal future behavior.

Investors should thus commit money based on future earnings power, not the past. The fact that the EPS number remains constant, while the stock prices fluctuate, is also a problem. If a major company event drives the stock price significantly higher or lower, the trailing P/E will be less reflective of those changes.

The trailing P/E ratio will change as the price of a company’s stock moves because earnings are only released each quarter, while stocks trade day in and day out. As a result, some investors prefer the forward P/E. If the forward P/E ratio is lower than the trailing P/E ratio, it means analysts are expecting earnings to increase; if the forward P/E is higher than the current P/E ratio, analysts expect them to decrease.

Valuation From P/E

The price-to-earnings ratio or P/E is one of the most widely used stock analysis tools by which investors and analysts determine stock valuation. In addition to showing whether a company's stock price is overvalued or undervalued, the P/E can reveal how a stock's valuation compares to its industry group or a benchmark like the S&P 500 Index.

In essence, the price-to-earnings ratio indicates the dollar amount an investor can expect to invest in a company in order to receive $1 of that company’s earnings. This is why the P/E is sometimes referred to as the price multiple because it shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. If a company was currently trading at a P/E multiple of 20x, the interpretation is that an investor is willing to pay$20 for $1 of current earnings. The P/E ratio helps investors determine the market value of a stock as compared to the company's earnings. In short, the P/E ratio shows what the market is willing to pay today for a stock based on its past or future earnings. A high P/E could mean that a stock's price is high relative to earnings and possibly overvalued. Conversely, a low P/E might indicate that the current stock price is low relative to earnings. Example of the P/E Ratio As a historical example, let's calculate the P/E ratio for Walmart Inc. (WMT) as of Feb. 3, 2021, when the company's stock price closed at$139.55. The company's earnings per share for the fiscal year ending Jan. 31, 2021, was $4.75, according to The Wall Street Journal. Therefore, Walmart's P/E ratio is$139.55 / $4.75 = 29.38. Comparing Companies Using P/E As an additional example, we can look at two financial companies to compare their P/E ratios and see which is relatively over- or undervalued. Bank of America Corporation (BAC) closed out the year 2021 with the following stats: • Stock Price =$30.31
• Diluted EPS = $1.87 • P/E = 16.21x ($30.31 / $1.87) In other words, Bank of America traded at roughly 16x trailing earnings. However, the 16.21 P/E multiple by itself isn't helpful unless you have something to compare it with, such as the stock's industry group, a benchmark index, or Bank of America's historical P/E range. Bank of America's P/E at 16x was slightly higher than the S&P 500, which over time trades at about 15x trailing earnings. To compare Bank of America's P/E to a peer's, we calculate the P/E for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as of the end of 2020: • Stock Price =$127.07

P/E vs. Earnings Yield

The inverse of the P/E ratio is the earnings yield (which can be thought of as the E/P ratio). The earnings yield is thus defined as EPS divided by the stock price, expressed as a percentage.

Relative P/E

The relative P/E compares the current absolute P/E to a benchmark or a range of past P/Es over a relevant time period, such as the past 10 years. The relative P/E shows what portion or percentage of the past P/Es the current P/E has reached. The relative P/E usually compares the current P/E value to the highest value of the range, but investors might also compare the current P/E to the bottom side of the range, measuring how close the current P/E is to the historic low.

The relative P/E will have a value below 100% if the current P/E is lower than the past value (whether the past high or low). If the relative P/E measure is 100% or more, this tells investors that the current P/E has reached or surpassed the past value.

Limitations of Using the P/E Ratio

Like any other fundamental designed to inform investors as to whether or not a stock is worth buying, the price-to-earnings ratio comes with a few important limitations that are important to take into account because investors may often be led to believe that there is one single metric that will provide complete insight into an investment decision, which is virtually never the case.

Companies that aren't profitable and, consequently, have no earnings—or negative earnings per share—pose a challenge when it comes to calculating their P/E. Opinions vary as to how to deal with this. Some say there is a negative P/E, others assign a P/E of 0, while most just say the P/E doesn't exist (N/A or not available) or is not interpretable until a company becomes profitable for purposes of comparison.

One primary limitation of using P/E ratios emerges when comparing the P/E ratios of different companies. Valuations and growth rates of companies may often vary wildly between sectors due to both the different ways companies earn money and the differing timelines during which companies earn that money.

As such, one should only use P/E as a comparative tool when considering companies in the same sector because this kind of comparison is the only kind that will yield productive insight. Comparing the P/E ratios of a telecommunications company and an energy company, for example, may lead one to believe that one is clearly the superior investment, but this is not a reliable assumption.

Other P/E Considerations

An individual company’s P/E ratio is much more meaningful when taken alongside the P/E ratios of other companies within the same sector. For example, an energy company may have a high P/E ratio, but this may reflect a trend within the sector rather than one merely within the individual company. An individual company’s high P/E ratio, for example, would be less cause for concern when the entire sector has high P/E ratios.

Moreover, because a company’s debt can affect both the prices of shares and the company’s earnings, leverage can skew P/E ratios as well. For example, suppose there are two similar companies that differ primarily in the amount of debt they assume. The one with more debt will likely have a lower P/E value than the one with less debt. However, if business is good, the one with more debt stands to see higher earnings because of the risks it has taken.

Another important limitation of price-to-earnings ratios is one that lies within the formula for calculating P/E itself. Accurate and unbiased presentations of P/E ratios rely on accurate inputs of the market value of shares and of accurate earnings per share estimates. The market determines the prices of shares through its continuous auction. The printed prices are available from a wide variety of reliable sources. However, the source for earnings information is ultimately the company itself. This single source of data is more easily manipulated, so analysts and investors place trust in the company's officers to provide accurate information. If that trust is perceived to be broken, the stock will be considered riskier and therefore less valuable.

To reduce the risk of inaccurate information, the P/E ratio is but one measurement that analysts scrutinize. If the company were to intentionally manipulate the numbers to look better, and thus deceive investors, they would have to work strenuously to be certain that all metrics were manipulated in a coherent manner, which is difficult to do. That's why the P/E ratio continues to be one of the most centrally referenced points of data when analyzing a company, but by no means is it the only one.

What Is a Good Price-to-Earnings Ratio?

The question of what is a good or bad price-to-earnings ratio will necessarily depend on the industry in which the company is operating. Some industries will have higher average price-to-earnings ratios, while others will have lower ratios. For example, in January 2021, publicly traded broadcasting companies had an average trailing P/E ratio of only about 12, compared to more than 60 for software companies. If you want to get a general idea of whether a particular P/E ratio is high or low, you can compare it to the average P/E of the competitors within its industry.

Is It Better to Have a Higher or Lower P/E Ratio?

Many investors will say that it is better to buy shares in companies with a lower P/E because this means you are paying less for every dollar of earnings that you receive. In that sense, a lower P/E is like a lower price tag, making it attractive to investors looking for a bargain. In practice, however, it is important to understand the reasons behind a company’s P/E. For instance, if a company has a low P/E because its business model is fundamentally in decline, then the apparent bargain might be an illusion.

What Does a P/E Ratio of 15 Mean?

Simply put, a P/E ratio of 15 would mean that the current market value of the company is equal to 15 times its annual earnings. Put literally, if you were to hypothetically buy 100% of the company’s shares, it would take 15 years for you to earn back your initial investment through the company’s ongoing profits.

Article Sources

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